What yield does a Bitcoin mining investment produce?
Deploy capital as a working capital pool. The pool pays miners daily under FPPS. You earn the pool fee margin when blocks are found. Model expected yield, block luck variance, and minimum buffer requirements.
1
Live Network Data
Auto-loaded from mempool.space — override any field
BTC Price (USD)
i
Current Bitcoin spot price. Used for USD display only — does not affect BTC yield calculations.
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Network Hashrate (EH/s)
i
Total global mining power. Your hashrate share determines expected block frequency.
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Network Difficulty
i
Bitcoin's proof-of-work target. Directly determines the FPPS rate per unit of hashrate. Adjusts every ~2 weeks.
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Avg Tx Fees / Block (BTC)
i
Average transaction fees per block over last 144 blocks. Included in FPPS payments to miners and block rewards received by pool.
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2
Your Capital
Capital to Deploy
i
25 BTC buys 1 EH/s for 60 days. Funds daily FPPS payments to miners and acts as buffer against bad luck streaks.
₿
≈ loading… · 1.00 EH/s purchased
Or enter in USD
$
Lock Period
Custom period (days)
60-day lock · capital + yield returned at maturity
Pool Fee (to investor) 1.0%
Fee charged to miners on FPPS rate → goes to investor
Block Subsidy (BTC)
Current block reward. Next halving ~2028
Monte Carlo Runs
More runs = more accurate distribution
3
Projected Returns
60-day projection
Total BTC Earned (Expected)
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Investor Yield
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Annualised Rate
—
projected annual yield
Hashrate Purchased
i
Edit any of the three values. Changing hashrate or the pricing rate will back-calculate and update capital in Step 2. The period here mirrors the lock period chosen above.
EH/sEH/s
RateBTC / EH
Perioddays
25 BTC × 1.00 EH × (60/60) = 25.00 BTC capital
← from capital
capital from EH →
FPPS Rate (net to miner)
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sat / TH / day
Daily FPPS Obligation
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paid to miners daily
Expected Blocks Found
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Cumulative BTC Earned vs Capital Deployed
Return Breakdown
ℹ Click Run Full Simulation above to generate the Monte Carlo distribution using Poisson-distributed block timing.
P10 — Bad Luck
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Worst 10% of simulations
P50 — Median
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Most likely outcome
P90 — Good Luck
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Best 90% of simulations
Yield Distribution — — simulations
Inter-Block Time Distribution (hours between blocks)
Buffer Adequacy
Run simulation to analyse
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0%Buffer vs 99% worst-case FPPS exposure100%
Run the simulation to see whether your capital covers FPPS obligations during bad luck streaks.
90% Confidence
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max FPPS exposure
95% Confidence
—
max FPPS exposure
99% Confidence
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max FPPS exposure
99.9% Confidence
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max FPPS exposure
Max FPPS Drawdown Distribution (worst streak per simulation)
Expected Block Events
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Block #
Expected Day
Block Reward
FPPS Paid (period)
Investor Fee Income
Cumulative BTC
Cumulative Yield
Important: This simulator models gross mining economics under FPPS/PPLNS using live network data.
It does not account for electricity costs, hardware depreciation, operational expenses, or tax obligations.
Bitcoin price, network hashrate, transaction fees, and difficulty fluctuate continuously — actual returns will differ.
Monte Carlo simulations assume Poisson-distributed block times and do not model mid-period difficulty adjustments.
For planning and illustration only. Not financial advice.